"Ellie" Heads to the Track

Ellie getting ready to walk after a hard rain cancelled her work the day before her move to the track.

Although it has been a spring of frustration for the claiming group (4 lost shakes and an ‘off the turf’ scratch of another target), very quietly another group’s horse has been making progress behind the scenes.

Elusive Edition (Late Edition-Mystical Elusion-Menifee) has been preparing for her racing debut at Russ Rhone’s training center in Minnesota.  Just yesterday we got the news that Russ has gone as far as he can with Ellie and it was time for her to take the next step in her career – moving to Bernell Rhone’s barn at

Canterbury and getting ready to race.

Two-year olds are tricky under the best of circumstances and so far Russ has been able to navigate her through with a minimum of trouble.  She’s done all that was asked and done so with only minor hiccups along the road but now it’s time for her to get serious.  Some things we know about “Ellie” so far:

-         -  She loves to work.  She is tremendously cuddly and loving off the track.  Once she hits the track, though, she’s all business.  She wants to go harder and faster than we want her to right now so we need to protect her from herself but this is something you can’t train – a horse has it or they don’t.  We’re very excited that she does.

-          - Expert (read: not us!) opinions seem to guide us toward her being a useful horse.  Probably better than claiming quality but opinion is divided on whether or not she’s stakes quality.  However, like every other horse out there, you never really know that until they start the real running.

-          - She will NOT be running in one of those 2 furlong deals.  Until she’s ready to 5 furlongs or better, she’s not racing.  I hate the idea of pushing a 2-year old in a dead sprint in their first race.  What do they get out of that? They learn to run like quarter horses out of the gate?  That’s not very useful over 6 furlongs and certainly not useful if you have a miler or a router on your hands.  Why teach them something they will never use again?  Wait and do it once and, hopefully, do it right.

The jury is always out until the running starts, but we’ll get a better gauge on her as she starts her life on the racetrack.  Today (Sunday) is moving day for her, though we’re not quite sure when yet.  A couple of us plan to be back there when she arrives, or soon thereafter, to give her a familiar face, some loving and a few treats to hopefully make the transition a little easier.  Yeah, it sounds dopey but if it helps her just a little bit…

We're Off and Racing in Minnesota

A rainy first night hasn’t dampened the enthusiasm of the racing fans tonight at the season opener at Canterbury Park.  The fans are out strong, maybe not as strong as they would have been on a warm, sunny evening, but the crowd was hopping and were thrilled to respond when track announcer Paul Allen exhorted them to make some noise before the gates sprung open for race 1.

As the season gets started and the damp has kept me up in the pressbox, I thought I’d ruminate on a few things as the season gets started.  Just some of the things I’m interested in following as the season moves along:

1)      Heliskier: Is the 4-year gelding going to be able to maintain his “superhorse” status as the season rolls along?  Last season he was a sterling 4-4 and was simply unchallenged. There was some hope that he may debut in open company before this Canterbury season but that was not to be as he makes his debut as the odds on favorite in the $50,000 10,000 Lakes Stakes on Saturday.  If you watched his Minnesota Derby win and didn’t get chills down your spine as he simply accelerated away from the field under very little urging from jockey Derek Bell, you ain’t really a fan.

2)      Trainer and Jockey Race: With new jockeys and trainers coming to town the two races should be a very competitive.  Roger Brueggemann running the Midwest Thoroughbred operation already has a win and a place on the opening card and EM Martin marked his return to Canterbury with a win on board.  Mac Robertson, perennial leading trainer here, may have a tougher road to hoe, but Mac has a deep bench and knows this track better than most – he won’t just roll over for the invaders and neither will jocks Dean Butler or Derek Bell.  It should be fun to watch.

3)      Field size/handle/payoffs: arguably the field size is a bit disappointing opening weekend given the burgeoning horse population on the backside, but as more horses arrive and the Minnesota breds get ready to race, the field sizes should increase and there should be better wagering opportunities and payoffs.  Favorites shouldn’t be winning at a nearly 40% clip anymore and the low takeout pick fours should really start paying nicely allowing bettors to spread their wagers a bit more leading to higher handle.  It will be interesting to watch the pools as the season progresses and see if that handle starts to climb.

4)      Closer to home: First time in years that we didn’t get a claim at Tampa to start the season.  I wish I could describe my frustration, but I really can’t adequately explain it.  We lost 4 shakes and another horse we were going to drop a slip on scratched the morning of a race.  Additionally we vetted out another horse who turned up with a bad ankle.  Granted, the $500 we spent saved us $16,000 overall, but it WAS frustrating that the horse didn’t check out.

The season is underway, we’re halfway through the first night’s card and on our way to the first stake of the season, the Lady Slipper.  The band is playing, the crowd is cheering and the sloppy track is drying.  We started the card with three sixes coming up winners, but that streak is broken now too.

Best of luck to everyone this season and make sure to stop me and say hello when you’re out at the track!

139th Kentucky Derby: 0-139?

It’s Derby time again and for the 139^th year in a row I will try and end my streak of futility.  Of course it is not that long, but it sure feels like it has been.  For expert selections (and mine) for the Derby and undercard visit the outstanding fan education site Hello Race Fans.  Let’s take a brief look at the field:

Black Onyx (Breen/Bravo) – SCRATCH (escapes the jinx)

Oxbow (Lukas/Stevens): Hasn’t won since the Grade 3 LeComte early in the year and was beaten by several in here at the Arkansas Derby.  Had traffic trouble there but don’t expect anything less in Louisville!

Revolutionary (Pletcher/Borel): Sporting a 3-race winning streak including wins in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby and the Grade 3 Withers.  Should have some distance limitations but has been winning with each consecutive stretch out.

Golden Soul (Stewart/Albarado): Since Mine That Bird I’ve tried to make it a point of never counting any horse out, but it’s hard for me to envision a scenario where Golden Soul wins this race.

Normandy Invasion (Brown/Castellano): A hip pick after a rapidly closing 2^nd to Verrazano in the Grade 1 Wood but has not had his nose on the wire first since his maiden score at 2.

My Lute (Amoss/Napravnik): Very game in battling Revolutionary to the wire at the Fairgrounds.  Most impressive win was in an Optional Claimer but has fallen short against better.

Giant Finish (Dutrow/Espinoza): Only has run against state breds and over synthetic.  Just don’t see it.

Goldencents (O’Neill/Krigger): Doug O’Neill brings in another relatively unknown jockey to the Derby aboard a colt that impressively won the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby.  A mile and a quarter might be much for this guy and he’s going to want to be on or near the lead and it’ll be tough to slow down a 19 horse field.  Mud may help this one.

Overanalyze (Pletcher/Bejarano): Something I am definitely doing after years of futility…  Impressive winner of the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby after disappointing in the Gotham.  Seems to have found a pilot he can bond with in Bejarano.

Palace Malice (Pletcher/Smith): Another trendy pick who hasn’t won since his maiden.  Came very close in the Blue Grass, but that was over the synthetic surface.  May be a better turfer than dirt.

Lines of Battle (O’Brien/Moore):  Winner of the Group 2 UAE Derby, the distance won’t be an issue but the crowded field and the dirt surface may be.

Itsmyluckyday (Plesa/Trujillo): After impressive back to back wins in the Gulfstream Park Derby and Grade 3 Holy Bull, the colt was away for nearly 2 months before coming up short in the Grade 1 Florida Derby showcasing what could be some distance limitations.

Falling Sky (Terranova/Saez): After upsetting the field in the Sam Davis at Tampa, the colt was well beaten by many of these in the Tampa Bay Derby and the Arkansas Derby.

Verrazano (Pletcher/Velazquez): Undefeated frontrunner has really yet to be challenged.  Seemed to have been nearly caught by Normandy Invasion in the Wood but remained unbeaten.  Going to be tough to grab the lead from the 14 hole and may need to navigate some unfamiliar territory to win the race.

Charming Kitten (Pletcher/Prado): Yet another Pletcher entry, this one’s only win since its maiden was a score in the race named for his sire.  Recipient of the Sandra Swan top choice and she has been scary with longshots – don’t overlook; even if it is his first time on dirt.

Orb (McGaughey/Rosario): Winner of four in a row in impressive fashion.  Had to navigate traffic and charge from off the pace – all skills he will need Saturday afternoon.  Should be able to run whether it’s wet or dry.  Deserved ML favorite.

Will Take Charge (Lukas/Court): Won the Grade 2 Rebel at 28-1 to get into the field and has been off since that effort on March 16.  Been working consistently but can’t say brilliantly.

Frac Daddy (McPeek/Lebron): Another eligible for a non-winners of one race other than maiden allowance.  Hasn’t shown enough against this type to figure.

Java’s War (McPeek/Leparoux): Grade 1 Blue Grass winner appears to better on synthetic/grass.

Vyjack (Rodriguez/Gomez): Winner of four in a row until running into Verrazano in the Wood, a mile and a quarter doesn’t appear to be his best distance and it will be difficult to track the pace from post position 20.

Who gets Ted’s kiss of death this year?  Depending upon who you talk to this is either a two horse race between Verrazano and Orb or a wide open affair with God knows who winning.  I don’t think that this is as wide open as the Oaks appeared to be and I also feel that Orb and Verrazano are the class of this group.  However, and this is a big however, there are 17 other horses in the race – all going further than they have ever gone before – and there will be traffic and there will be trouble.  Who survives the trouble and can get the distance wins the race.

I am a fan of not betting a horse that is being asked to do something that it’s never done before.  In this case we have 19 horses all being asked to go a mile and a quarter: level playing field.  Loads of potential traffic issues: that narrows things down a bit.  Despite all the trendy upset picks like Oxbow, Normandy Invasion and even Palace Malice, I really do think that Orb and Verrazano are the two most talented horses in the gate but only one of them has dealt with trouble, dug in and overcame it: My apologies, Heather...this year's choice is Orb

1.      Orb        2. Verrazano       3. Charming Kitten           4. Revolutionary